Generally when we think of a baseline for the future, we tend to assume it's a flat line from exactly where we are now. But this is almost never actually the case. If you're actively investing, net positive returns mean almost nothing. The actually useful question is whether you're outperforming the simple counterfactual: putting your money in an index fund and letting it compound. This concept of comparing to a simple counterfactual generalizes surprisingly well to almost every aspect of life. It's easy to be complacent, seeing how far you’ve come and the obvious differences between you now and you in the past. But it's a lot harder to see which parts represented genuine changes beyond the trajectory you were already on. For example, graduating high school feels like progress, but a freshman version of me was on the path to do this. The reason I’m writing this is because I have a mental list of things I've done that I’m proud of, and I realized that I’m most pr...
It feels like just yesterday I wrote the last post on this blog. This last month has been a blur, which makes sense because almost every week had a consistent rhythm. But I realized that this isn’t the consistent rhythm I want, honestly I don’t even want to carry this over into the next month. How did so much time go by before I realized this? Let’s turn back to trusty song lyrics Life goin’ fast, but we kids and we thinkin' it'll be that way forever, so we waste time Ignoring the perhaps harsh tone of using this lyric as a metaphor, I think people often fall into this form of complacency in life. Falling into a narrow vision of what your future will look like makes you lose the bigger picture and what you’re actually working towards. A good example of this is going into Quant. When a coworker of mine was in college, he told me that almost everyone he knew had the goal of getting a job as a Quant researcher. They made lots of money and actively worked on interesting problems— ...